Decline penalty let cowboys kick FG in 1st qtr ?

lapaz said

Good analysis, and I generally agree, but it doesn't account for the possibility of a negative play to take them completely out of field goal range. In a known passing down, we would've put a lot of pressure on, so it must be at least a 8% chance of a negative play.

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I would be willing to bet that on 3rd and more than 10 Ryan (along with most other DC's) would not blitz in anticipation of some kind of screen pass or draw. Which is the prefect play call against heavy pressure. I did a quick Google search on Ryan's 3rd and long blitz percentage and couldn't find anything. But I bet a 3rd and long blitz isn't that common. So the chances of a negative play (sack or tackle for loss) was not high.