Football Outsiders: Film Room - Sean Payton

For the film breakdown junkies.

The Seahawks have an exceptional pass rush and a terrifying secondary. Their one supposed weakness is that they struggle against the run, but they rank eighth in run defense DVOA. The Saints could try to play conservative and win this game on defense, but that is a very unrealistic. With their depleted secondary and the Seattle's balanced offense, the Saints will likely need to raise their normal expectations for their offense rather than lower them.
One team has successfully managed what Payton is trying to do this week. The Arizona Cardinals went into Seattle and beat the Seahawks in Week 16 of the regular season. However, the Cardinals didn't really create any blueprint for the Saints to follow. Carson Palmer and the offense were very fortunate with the turnovers they did have and fortunate to avoid the ones they didn't. The Seahawks didn't take over the game when their defense took the ball away, largely because the Cardinals defense played well and the Seahawks offense wasn't as sharp as it usually is.

Instead, Payton must look to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers played the Seahawks in Week 9. They lost 27-24 but that was after establishing a 21-0 lead in the second quarter. The Buccaneers built that lead by relying heavily on rookie running back Mike James. James had 28 carries for 158 yards in the game. He wasn't consistently keeping the Buccaneers ahead of the down-and-distance, but he was able to break off a number of big runs. Of James' 28 carries, 11 gained at least five yards and eight gained at least eight yards.




FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Film Room: Sean Payton