Capping the Game

Going in, I think we know what to expect from both teams, lots of handoffs. It's not in the Saints best interest to be flinging the ball all over the field against a Raven's D that is 1st in picking off passes. And the Ravens, well, they just don't know how to pass, so they'll do what they always do, hope against hope that they can find a running game so someone can get open downfield running those antiquated pass routes. I suspect that the Ravens will have slightly better numbers rushing, but not good enough to force the Saints into any kind of adjustment.

The Saints will pass when they have the field position, and when Drew hits the key completions they'll score. Hopefully, the coaching staff has some "specials" up their sleeve so that we get TDs in of FGs on a couple of occasions. The Ravens will pass in the same situations, but as I indicated, they won't be as successful as the Saints are through the air.

The key to the game is favorable field position - how often each team can start beyong the 40 yard line, where the risk/benefit ratio is such that the coaches will temporarily shelve their fears. The stat that jumps out at me is Punts, where the Saints rank 2nd in forcing them, and the Ravens rank 31st in avoiding them. The Saints aren't strangers to punting either, and the Ravens do force a lot of punts as well, so we can expect an incredible amount of punts Sunday. Maybe more than anybody has seen this year. With field position being at a premium, I'd say that the punt return game is a big, big factor. The Saints have a slight advantage on paper in this category, otherwise I wouldn't bet them, but if either team gets a return for a TD they win.

I'm going to go ahead and bet on the Saints and lay the 2 points. It should be a tense game, one that the TV announcers will call boring, but people who know how to watch a game will be on he edge of their seats.