Marijuana

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...-next-15-states-legalize-marijuana/860502001/

2. Arkansas

Possession decriminalized: No
Amount decriminalized: N/A
Max. fine for less than 4 oz.: $2,500
Annual adult usage: 11.3% (16th lowest)
As a ballot initiative state, the likelihood of Arkansas legalizing recreational marijuana use is considerably higher than that of most other states. Voters in the state recently approved Issue 6 by a 53.2% to 46.8% margin, allowing the use of medical marijuana with doctor approval for the first time. The new law may be a sign of progress for proponents of legalization, as voters in the state struck down a similar proposition as recently as 2012.

Still, the state has several potential hurdles to clear before full legalization is reality. Many voters in Arkansas may not be open to the idea of legalization, as just an estimated 11.3% of state adults 18 and older have used marijuana in the past year, a smaller share than in most states. Additionally, those caught in possession of any amount without doctor approval can face a misdemeanor, one year in jail, and a $2,500 fine.

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5. Florida

Possession decriminalized: No
Amount decriminalized: N/A
Max. fine for 20 g. or less: $1,000
Annual adult usage: 12.1% (24th lowest)
So far, every state to have legalized recreational marijuana use did so through a voter proposed ballot initiative. In November 2016, Sunshine State residents voted by a wide 71.3% to 28.7% margin to legalize medical marijuana use. Passage of the law, known as Amendment 2, means that patients suffering from a range of conditions, including Parkinson’s disease, PTSD, and glaucoma, can legally obtain and possess marijuana with a doctor’s approval.

Despite the recent constitutional amendment that suggests growing acceptance of marijuana use in Florida, recreational users in the state still face serious legal consequences. Those caught with 20 grams or less of the drug face misdemeanor charges, up to a year in jail, and fines as high as $1,000. Still, as a ballot initiative state, legalization could happen much faster in Florida than in states that do not allow voter-sponsored ballot initiatives.

FWIW, I think the list is alphabetical and not ranked by probability.

Interesting list. If Fla and Ark manage, I can see that as a big time shift since they'd be the first states in the South. Ark. is especially interesting given their close proximity to La and Tx. Tx. was close to decriminalizing a few years back so with a connected border they might just decide to go ahead and start collecting taxes on it. La. will fight to the bitter end I'm sure, but with so many paths from Ark, the cops will be in a losing battle.