Bitcoin and Crypto Talk (Merged)(includes NFT)

bclemms said

Holy hell the bubble that has formed. Crypto's are all the rage in group messages on facebook, message boards, hell even Fox News and NPR radio are basically doing informercials on bitcoin. It feels like a giant pump and dump.

I sure wish I jumped in bitcoin a few years ago but with all the different crypto currencies out there and so few actually being used for anything along with everyone jumping in tells me to run like hell. I want to short it but have a feeling all the volatility is making some institutions a hell of a lot of money right now.

Starting to think I'm just a pessimistic investor.

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No, you're absolutely right. Anyone who spends any time with it comes away with a secure opinion that it is a bubble. If you're looking to invest, it's a poor choice. That said, just because something is a bubble doesn't mean you can't make money off of it. In fact, bubbles provide some of the best returns you could ever hope to get. Institutional money is trying to get into bitcoin but apart from private (e.g. hedge) funds, there isn't much happening yet. But there are hundreds of ETF applications pending and if any of those open up, it could easily run up another 10 to 100 fold.

The folks on the tech side have already left bitcoin for some operational reasons. I don't know enough about the blockchain technology to know whether the issues with bitcoin (e.g. processing times) can be reworked or whether that is fundamental to how it works. In evaluating its value for transactional purposes, you have to be able to determine how much of those characteristics are unique to bitcoin - if the answer is zero, it's easy to imagine that a better evolution will replace it. But maybe not - first in often has advantages that copycats never achieve, even if the copies are better in some respects.