Bitcoin and Crypto Talk (Merged)(includes NFT)

No, you're absolutely right. Anyone who spends any time with it comes away with a secure opinion that it is a bubble. If you're looking to invest, it's a poor choice. That said, just because something is a bubble doesn't mean you can't make money off of it. In fact, bubbles provide some of the best returns you could ever hope to get. Institutional money is trying to get into bitcoin but apart from private (e.g. hedge) funds, there isn't much happening yet. But there are hundreds of ETF applications pending and if any of those open up, it could easily run up another 10 to 100 fold.

The folks on the tech side have already left bitcoin for some operational reasons. I don't know enough about the blockchain technology to know whether the issues with bitcoin (e.g. processing times) can be reworked or whether that is fundamental to how it works. In evaluating its value for transactional purposes, you have to be able to determine how much of those characteristics are unique to bitcoin - if the answer is zero, it's easy to imagine that a better evolution will replace it. But maybe not - first in often has advantages that copycats never achieve, even if the copies are better in some respects.

Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love the idea of Bitcoin. I love taking currency out of the hands of central banks and governments.

I'm also smart enough to know that the second institutions get involved it's all over with and when it's time for someone like Goldman and the US Government to want to drive the price into the ground they can make it happen overnight. The good news is it probably wont happen until institutions can get on the short side to do it.

I have neighbors, my kid's school teacher, my father and a TON of friends dumping money into crypto right now. Yes, it can certainly run up another huge amount but I just feel like the fall is so much bigger than the climb at this point. Wall Street doesn't let the public pile into a run up like this without getting burned.

As far as comparing it to the modern day confederate dollar, that isn't really a good comparison.

It's more like a penny mining stock that exploded in value after rumors they've found one of the biggest gold reserves in history but we've yet to see any actual gold. The future will tell and I would suspect that the future isn't that far away.

I guess it's a safer play than a casino but only slightly.

Then again, others were saying the same thing I'm saying when bitcoin hit $100, they said it when it hit $1000, $5000, etc. What makes me right this time?