32% chance to win the Super Bowl per FiveThirtyEight

In 2006, they did. Go back to that year. Baltimore had the best defense since 2000. In some ways, the 2006 Ravens were better than the 2000 team cause they played a tougher schedule and they had a better offense than the Trent Dilfer led one. But no one really believed in them yet, and sure enough, they didn't get past one game. The Colts took them out in Baltimore.

No one believed in the Colts in 2006. The story was that Peyton Manning was this big choker, cause it was apparently all his fault that Nick Harper decided to run down the middle of the field after the Bettis fumble in the 2005 playoff game, and also his fault that the Colts kicker missed on a field goal that would've sent that game to OT (Vanderjat cost the Colts multiple playoff games by missing field goals, but that's all Manning's fault). Manning's 18 point storming comeback was erased by two huge mistakes by his team, but it's easier to blame him if people didn't watch that game.

Something not in the Colts favor at all in 2006 was that their rushing defense was ranked dead last. They are the only team in NFL history to win the SB with the 32nd ranked rushing defense. When they played Jacksonville that year, the Jags just ran all over them and destroyed them. Talk to Colts fans and many of them did not trust that team in 2006 cause of this, but their defense played better in the playoffs.

People also didn't believe in the Patriots. They didn't have any receivers that year. 2006 is the year they foolishly decided not to pay Deion Branch and it came back to haunt them when all their receivers started dropping passes when they needed to keep scoring to halt the Colts comeback in the AFC title game. Once the Colts offense woke up in that game and started firing on all cylinders, the Pats receivers got alligator arms.

The Chargers were considered THE team in 2006...until Marlon McCree fumbled it all away for them after Brady threw a direct INT into his arms.

I give the Colts credit for 2006; they beat the #1, #2, and #3 ranked defenses in that playoff run. Manning's TD/INT ratio was poor, but it was expected going up against the top 3 defenses. He still came out with a ring. But they had to get there by avoiding the Chargers. The Chargers that year would've wrecked their struggling defense and gave them serious issues like they always did with Tomlinson.

It's debatable with 2009. Some people, even Colts fans did not really believe in the Colts that year cause if you went through their 14-0 record, they could've easily been a 10-6 type team. Manning won MVP that year due to a total of 7 comeback wins. That Colts team struggled to shut the door on opponents they should've been blowing out. They ranked dead last at 32nd in the league on rushing offense and their defense had hiccups all year long. The Chargers could've handled them, but they choked all over themselves to the Jets.




I don't think home field advantage means anything to the Chargers. We make fun of the Rams getting overrun by opposing fans in the Coliseum, but it's even worse with the Chargers.

That little stadium got so overrun by opposing fans last year and this year as well. When they played Denver, it was a sea of orange in the crowd. The Chiefs fans completely overrun that stadium in week 1.

If New England has to travel to L.A, you can bet on that stadium being overrun with Pats fans.

I think the Pats could travel into K.C. and beat the Chiefs. I'll never trust an Andy Reid coached team, especially one with a horrible defense like K.C. has. The Chiefs have 'one and done' written all over them.
The 2018 team is completely different to their 2006 team. It was over 12 years ago.