Actually, based on historical precedent, teams without a bye get to the SB about 20% of the time in the current playoff format. So no, not remotely roughly the same. That, and the Saints have been stellar on the road this season.
But we can agree 80% is better than 20%, correct? And then you slice Into those numbers considerably based on how unlikely it is we win not 1, but likely two games on the road against 13-3 teams AFTER winning a first-round game?
Do that, and you’re a lot closer to .000001% than 20%.