Carolina Will Not Trade for Burrow

A reliable source has advised....

No, I have no sources, even unreliable ones.

But with Joe Brady becoming Carolina's offensive coordinator, we hear the speculation that Carolina will trade with the Bengals to pick Joe Burrow. In my view, several reasons why this will not happen:

1. It appears that the Bengals are ready to move on from Andy Dalton and thus desperately need a quarterback. Burrow seems perfect for a young offensive coach, who came to Cincinnati from the Rams, and the type of offense he wants to run. Given Burrow's value on and off the field, the Bengals will demand multiple first-round and other picks for the first pick in the draft. And Cincinnati does not make major trades. If Mike Brown were to make this trade and were Burrow--with his Ohio roots--to become a true franchise quarterback, people will compare this trade to Boston trading away Babe Ruth. Mike Brown simply cannot afford to make a trade and take the chance that Burrow becomes a great quarterback in the league who plays for 15 years. For an organization with a legacy of not making major moves, a trade of the draft pick to be used to select Burrow involves, on several levels, too much risk for a risk-averse organization.

2. The reason that David Tepper fired Ron Rivera, and hired Matt Rhule, is that Rivera is too old-school whereas Rhule seems comfortable in a new coaching world where statistics drive coaching decisions. David Tepper, who made billions running a hedge fund, believes in numbers--and he absolutely wants a football organization where the numbers determine the team's major decisions. For Carolina to trade for Burrow, Rhule will have to make the case that , based on historical date, the trade statistically makes sense. But statistically, trading away the multiple high picks that Cincinnati will demand to move up in the draft carries too much risk. Every player, regardless of how high he is picked, carries a certain risk of failure or disappointment. And based on the numbers, there is a question as to just how high of a grade Burrow will receive.

If Carolina were to like Tua, the cost of trading up to three or four, before Miami at five, will be substantially less than the cost of trading up to one with Cincinnati.

3. Carolina seems to be rebuilding. With the retirement of Kuehly and possible departure of Greg Olsen, Carolina is not a terribly talented team. With a young quarterback, it would have the cap space to spend heavily in free agency. But with a modest roster, a young quarterback and a young coaching staff with little NFL experience, Carolina could be drafting high for the next two or three years. Thus, high draft picks traded away will have particularly high value and are needed to rebuild the Panthers.