What's a reasonable contract extension for Kamara to avoid possible holdout?

I'm assuming he and his agent's strategy would be to approach his free agency as if he's a full-time back that was in a part-time back role because that's what the coaches wanted.

I think it's highly unlikely a player with his talent is going to say "yeah, I'm basically Darren Sproles". They'll likely be looking for a team that is going to treat him (and pay him) like a feature back.
I understand, then, why you feel like the Saints won’t end up re-signing Kamara. I can’t really poke holes in your analysis.