It's the offense, stupid.

Loose Cannon said

There's a lot of talk about the defense being to blame, or just a horrible series of luck and flukes, etc. I wanted to dig in a little bit further, because blaming the defense didn't really match what I thought I saw in the playoffs over the last three years.

Here's what I found:

- In our last four playoff games, the Saints have scored below their season average. And in the three home games, they've massively underperformed. By an average of more than a touchdown. In home games, we average 10 points less in the playoffs than the regular season.

	home/road	Season scoring average home or road	Actual Scored	Difference
2019	Min	28.4	20	-8.4
2018	LAR	34.1	23	-11.1
2018	Phi	34.1	23	-11.1
2017	@Min	25.8	24	-1.8
			Average Difference	-8.1

Checking to make sure scoring isn't down across the board in the playoffs, and we find that this is not the case for the successful playoff teams. Of the four teams who played on championship weekend, all but one averaged more points in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, and the Titans were just barely below (a single point).

	Season Avg.	Playoff Avg.	Diff
2019 Chiefs	28.2	43	14.8
2019 49ers	29.9	32	2.1
2019 Titans	25.1	24	-1.1
2019 Packers	23.5	24	0.5

In that same span, our defense has averaged giving up 22 points in the regular season, and in the playoffs, they gave up, on average... wait for it... 22 points (shocked Pikachu face). Even in our losses, the defense has played right to its expectation (which is a slightly above average defense).

It's not the defense letting the team down in the playoffs. The defense is putting out the exact same type of performance in the playoffs as they did in the regular seasons. It's the offense that's massively under-performing in the playoffs - to the tune of 10 points per game less.


Bottom line: If the Saints offense had simply performed to its regular season performance in the playoffs, they would have made the Super Bowl last year, and at the very least played Green Bay in the second round this year.

Click to expand...

Yeah, good work putting this together. I'll add this. All 3 playoff losses came down to the defense failing to making a stop with the game on the line. Same with the regular season loss to SF which in hindsight would've ended up making us the 1st seed.

Vs the Vikings this year, the dagger was the bomb to Thielen in OT. THAT play doesn't happen, our offense get's a crack at it. The actual TD was almost a given that deep in our redzone. But our defense holding and forcing a FG would've at least given us a chance. Remember, our offense completed the 4th quarter comeback. It's not uncommon for NFL games to be tight to the finish. Sometimes it takes a late scoring drive, sometimes it takes a defensive stop to win.

Vs the Vikings 2 years ago, our offense made that clutch 4th quarter come from behind score to take the lead with very little time left on the clock. Defense held for 3 downs then pooped the bed. Basically the same as happened this year, just in a way more spectacular and fluky fashion.

Vs the Rams last year, this really doesn't count. Our offense scored enough to win the game and then drove down the field on a drive designed to run out the clock. And it did what it was supposed to do. But for the no-call... well, we all know. Same with the no-call defensive holding on the CB trying to ankle tackle MT and the no-call when Fowler's "hitting the QB in the head and face" caused the interception that gifted LA the ball back in place to make the winning FG.

Yes, in all those situations, if our offense had scored more points we likely would've won and moved to the next round or the Superbowl. But in the end, in all 3 losses, our offense came through at the end and our defense didn't.

We can toss blame all we want at whoever we want... But it doesn't change anything.

We've devoted a TON of draft and FA capital towards making the defense better these past few years. And that was the right thing to do. Before that, our defense wasn't just weak, wasn't just a liability, it was historically bad. A bad joke. Now our defense is middle of the pack and improving. We used so much of our resources to improve our defense, that our offense (skill players / playmakers) has dwindled. We went from a GREAT OFFENSE with a TERRIBLE DEFENSE to an ABOVE AVERAGE OFFENSE with an ABOVE AVERAGE DEFENSE.