COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US)
My positive vibes are not believing 90% of the things posted on reddit and twitter.
Also outside of lying governments like China/Iran/NK, the numbers around the world really aren't as bad as it's being presented. The articles that were stating that 60% of the globe could get covid19 were laughable at best.
Those numbers were based on epidemiological modeling. Like any modeling, they're really only hypothetical - to confirm in reality, the real world situation has to unfold exactly like the model predicts. Unlike weather modeling that gets confirmed everyday, modeling a novel virus outbreak strikes me as pretty much useless.
Any reddit or twitter post that isn't verified from a known source appropriate to make such comments should be immediately disregarded IMO. But that poor info being out there doesn't mean that the good info is any less meaningful. The problem with the numbers for the rest of the world isn't about the raw magnitude. As we saw with Hubei, a substantially contagious viral outbreak (as this appears to be) spreads very quickly when not contained.
You can say, well South Korea only has 200 cases in a nation of 50 million. That's true, but it was 31 cases three days ago. Any time a new case pops up in a new location or a location with a low case count, the issue isn't the raw number, it's the question of containment. Apart from the genuine human interest and scientific interest, I think what we're all
most concerned about is (1) if this thing is going to get to our communities and what that might mean for us and our families, and (2) what will the broader impact be to the economy and global supply chains that provide us with the things we need.
No, we're still not at an immediate threat on those concerns. But the risk is substantially greater today than it was a month ago. Hopefully by this time next month, that risk will have subsided. Based on the way it's trending right now, that's less likely than an outcome of even greater risk.