COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US)
Meh, behind a paywall. Would have like to read how the study was done. It's often been reported that around 80% of cases have mild to no symptoms and 20% have more severe symptoms. If it's 1 out of 1000 hospitalized, then there have to be a huge number of infected people to make the numbers work. I'm guessing there have been 10,000 hospitalized to date, then that would mean that based on this research there are approximately a million people in the US with or have recently had the virus. That's a large number.
Here's a trick. Copy this:
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
And use it to search google. Click the link there and you can read it for free.
Or
Cliff notes version the article:
"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford. "
“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said. The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February. The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. "
" But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months. If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated. Although some experts have shed doubt on the strength and length of the human immune response to the virus, Prof Gupta said the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid-19. "
They do not offer a link to the actual study.