A few million people die, and I am pretty sure the economic impact will be somewhere between the great recession of 2008 and the great depression.
That is a pretty wide range of outcomes I will admit but I just dont know what the psychological impact of say ~2.5 million dead in 2020 would be on the economy. I would venture to say consumer behavior would be dramatically impacted, whole sectors of the economy would grind to a halt (no matter how "open" they are), and every business that could, would be shedding expenses and striving for as much liquid capital on hand as possible.