COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US)

In an infectious disease context, 20 percent is a massive number. We're seeing 20% and higher in many localities, but that's as a function of confirmed cases (and there are many unconfirmed cases out there) - but also we know anecdotally that there are patients requiring ventilators for moderate to severe pneumonia that have not yet been confirmed as Covid cases (but almost certainly are) - so you have to consider those as well.

The real incidence is probably between 5% on the low end and 15% on the high end (with higher incidence in the older demographics). But those are still massive numbers if overall volume is significant.

In comparison, H1N1 was hospitalizing at a rate of .45% (less than half a percent) and flu is about half of that (.25%).

I get it’s still serious and a large number especially given our shortage. I am saying that it appears that those long lines in NYC should not be happening based on the protocol we are being told to follow when we have symptoms. Do you think a good majority of the people flooding the hospitals have had high fever and/or trouble breathing?