USA, but you're right, the lag with some states will possibly extend this out. I am just saying "best case".
Florida, NYC, Chicago, Ohio, Washingon State, etc all at least closed schools almost two weeks ago, or more. That's a big help.
Currently here in South Florida, we've been mostly staying at home. I'd say 25% of folks are still doing a somewhat normal routine, and even that is with a lot of attention to sanitizing, washing hands, and keeping 6 feet away. Only a couple idiots.