COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (15 Viewers)

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I understand what St. PJ is saying...... I am sure most of you all do as well... and if you folks stop trying to pick apart his post for a second... I think most of you would agree with the premise of what he's saying, and maybe disagree with some finer debatable parts of his opinion about it... most of which are unknowns (even by the most "plugged in" people that are on the front lines of this) at this point and a matter of opinion and educated deduction of how future events will play out...

Is every number being reported valid? Who knows... Probably not by a long shot. Of every confirmed case where someone has been tested, hospitalized, ventilated, or died (or all of the above)... there are probably exponentially more cases where someone has it, experiences little to no symptoms, never gets tested, never gets hospitalized, and recovers without treatment (and is never part of these numbers)... so how could they be accurate from a pure numbers or percentage standpoint? We can estimate and guess based on other factors or scenarios... but those are also just that... a guess.

It makes sense that the numbers will never be close to 100% right until everyone it tested... and if we never get to test everyone... they will never be 100% accurate...

In fact, WWL showed a stat last night that... In LA only ~700 people per 100,000 has been tested for this... I'm not a math major.... but that means as a state we have tested less than >1% of our population.... and the national numbers are far less tested on average... that means that it's completely plausible that there is huge portion of the country that has the virus, has not been tested, and feels good enough to not be tested.... which totally skews the current numbers we see today...

So what he's saying is just as good as guess as anyone's... and his argument has merit..... even if you disagree with his deduction.

Can't wait until this is over so we can go back to arguing over which rich old guy we all hate the least.

Much love, stay safe, stay home... Out.
 
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HoustonGold said:
Why do you need to go to Texas or Florida in the first place? Does everyone understand what “ Stay In Place” mean? There is no need to go places right now. Stay in place so the spread does not get any worse and healthcare workers can get a grip on this. There is no need to go to the beach right now.
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Yeah I don't know why people have to travel from state to state, but some may be doing it for work purposes. Some in La may be leaving to get away from the Covid crisis in the state. Those are the one's Abbott is most concerned with.
 
gboudx said:
Yeah I don't know why people have to travel from state to state, but some may be doing it for work purposes. Some in La may be leaving to get away from the Covid crisis in the state. Those are the one's Abbott is most concerned with.
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You are better off staying put. I know Trump was considering closing the borders on NY.
 
DaveXA said:
Indeed, we likely won't see deaths peak until a week or two after cases peak. And we haven't seen the curve bend very noticeably yet. It should start bending soon if mitigation continues.
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If our mitigation efforts are enough. Ot has worked in other countries but most places seem to be taking it more seriously than we are. Most here are but many still are not.
 
Infoman said:
I understand what St. PJ is saying...... I am sure most of you all do as well... and if you folks stop trying to pick apart his post for a second... I think most of you would agree with the premise of what he's saying, and maybe disagree with some finer debatable parts of his opinion about it... most of which are unknowns (even by the most "plugged in" people that are on the front lines of this) at this point and a matter of opinion and educated deduction of how future events will play out...

Is every number being reported valid? Who knows... Probably not by a long shot. Of every confirmed case where someone has been tested, hospitalized, ventilated, or died (or all of the above)... there are probably exponentially more cases where someone has it, experiences little to no symptoms, never gets tested, never gets hospitalized, and recovers without treatment (and is never part of these numbers)... so how could they be accurate from a pure numbers or percentage standpoint? We can estimate and guess based on other factors or scenarios... but those are also just that... a guess.

It makes sense that the numbers will never be close to 100% right until everyone it tested... and if we never get to test everyone... they will never be 100% accurate...

So what he's saying is just as good as guess as anyone's... and his argument has merit..... even if you disagree with his deduction.

Can't wait until this is over so we can go back to arguing over which rich old guy we all hate the least.

Much love, stay safe, stay home... Out.
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This is my sentiments and very well said, its almost as if anyone with any sort of optimism is just wrong and is just waiting to be pounced on from a Tiger. When in reality, none of us know, its all a guessing game, for every scientist or doctor you find, you always have another one contradicting the other, its what you choose to cherry pick and we dont know so cherry picking works on both sides of the fence.
 
itztime said:
This is my sentiments and very well said, its almost as if anyone with any sort of optimism is just wrong and is just waiting to be pounced on from a Tiger. When in reality, none of us know, its all a guessing game, for every scientist or doctor you find, you always have another one contradicting the other, its what you choose to cherry pick and we dont know so cherry picking works on both sides of the fence.
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No. Not every thought needs a counterthought. Ignoring what's right in front of you is not exactly productive. This isn't an optimistic/pessimistic debate. Throwing out whatifs is counterproductive, as is muddying the waters with unfounded conjecture. We're all on the same side so why create or intensify division?
 
itztime said:
This is my sentiments and very well said, its almost as if anyone with any sort of optimism is just wrong and is just waiting to be pounced on from a Tiger. When in reality, none of us know, its all a guessing game, for every scientist or doctor you find, you always have another one contradicting the other, its what you choose to cherry pick and we dont know so cherry picking works on both sides of the fence.
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There nothing wrong with optimism. I'm probably one of the most optimistic guys you'll ever meet. But when it comes to this, the numbers don't lie. Over 180k cases and closing on 4k dead and we haven't come close to a peak in a lot of areas of the US. This is as serious as it gets. There's a reason 3/4s of the country is under stay at home orders and the other 1/4 needs to do so as well if we're gonna get through this.

A lot of people are suffering and we need to acknowledge that our actions collectively impact everyone around us. We need to stay home and wait this thing out. We'll mostly be ok if we are patient and do what we need to do.
 
itztime said:
This is my sentiments and very well said, its almost as if anyone with any sort of optimism is just wrong and is just waiting to be pounced on from a Tiger. When in reality, none of us know, its all a guessing game, for every scientist or doctor you find, you always have another one contradicting the other, its what you choose to cherry pick and we dont know so cherry picking works on both sides of the fence.
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There’s a lot in that initial post that was a total, immaterial mess. And I don’t understand what the point was and everything since then has been walking it back.

maybe it would have been wiser, in retrospect, to present something more lucid presented more reasonably.

as someone who has posted multiple times with the specific intent of being positive - and has not experienced said pouncing - I’m of the opinion there’s a way it can certainly be accomplished.
 
DaveXA said:
There nothing wrong with optimism. I'm probably one of the most optimistic guys you'll ever meet. But when it comes to this, the numbers don't lie. Over 180k cases and closing on 4k dead and we haven't come close to a peak in a lot of areas of the US. This is as serious as it gets. There's a reason 3/4s of the country is under stay at home orders and the other 1/4 needs to do so as well if we're gonna get through this.

A lot of people are suffering and we need to acknowledge that our actions collectively impact everyone around us. We need to stay home and wait this thing out. We'll mostly be ok if we are patient and do what we need to do.
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People often forget the lag. They shouldn't announce cases like they're from today. They aren't. For the most part, they're the results of swabs taken last week.
So we had 180k last Tuesday.

Like, if you have 100 hospital admissions a day and you announce 100 positive cases, how many people are actually in your hospital?
At least 800. The 100 you tested last week and the 700 who've arrived since then.

That's the discrepancy between what the public perceives and what healthcare workers are seeing.

We see the 100 while they put the 800 into offices, cafeterias and conference rooms.
 
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