I understand what St. PJ is saying...... I am sure most of you all do as well... and if you folks stop trying to pick apart his post for a second... I think most of you would agree with the premise of what he's saying, and maybe disagree with some finer debatable parts of his opinion about it... most of which are unknowns (even by the most "plugged in" people that are on the front lines of this) at this point and a matter of opinion and educated deduction of how future events will play out...
Is every number being reported valid? Who knows... Probably not by a long shot. Of every confirmed case where someone has been tested, hospitalized, ventilated, or died (or all of the above)... there are probably exponentially more cases where someone has it, experiences little to no symptoms, never gets tested, never gets hospitalized, and recovers without treatment (and is never part of these numbers)... so how could they be accurate from a pure numbers or percentage standpoint? We can estimate and guess based on other factors or scenarios... but those are also just that... a guess.
It makes sense that the numbers will never be close to 100% right until everyone it tested... and if we never get to test everyone... they will never be 100% accurate...
In fact, WWL showed a stat last night that... In LA only ~700 people per 100,000 has been tested for this... I'm not a math major.... but that means as a state we have tested less than >1% of our population.... and the national numbers are far less tested on average... that means that it's completely plausible that there is huge portion of the country that has the virus, has not been tested, and feels good enough to not be tested.... which totally skews the current numbers we see today...
So what he's saying is just as good as guess as anyone's... and his argument has merit..... even if you disagree with his deduction.
Can't wait until this is over so we can go back to arguing over which rich old guy we all hate the least.
Much love, stay safe, stay home... Out.