COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US)
This was so well stated, and has a been a fear I have had for awhile now...
I think the phrasing "flattening the curve" has been used far too much throughout this entire saga by leaders and by everyday citizens, and it is to the point now where many, including the politicians/decision-makers, feel as though that was the goal, and once achieved, everything will be just fine to re-open. Some of that is due to pure ignorance, displayed by folks such as the Las Vegas Mayor, and some of that is due to China's sudden flattening and "end of pandemic" narrative that many people gobbled up as 100% fact.
Truth is, it is the exact opposite of that. I mean great, we have hit the ceiling based on our current measures, but this truly isn't the end and we should not be treating it as such and being so eager to open immediately, at least not in the manner some leaders are presenting it to the public. As long as there are still active cases out there, this thing can and will begin spreading again quickly if we do not remain cautious for some time after the curve has flattened.
We have already seen that all it takes is 1 case to turn into thousands and ultimately kill thousands within weeks, and this has been my problem with this quarantine measure all along and why it will ultimately prove moot - this thing will always break out if we aren't practicing social distancing until a vaccine comes out, but practicing social distancing to the degree we are until a vaccine comes out is also not realistic, so we are stuck in a no-win battle and are just delaying the inevitable.
To me, I uncharacteristically agree with the far right that we HAVE to open the country up at some point, probably within the next 30 days or so, in some form or fashion; the country simply cannot afford to live like this for the next 12+ months until a vaccine comes out, because if we try to, we will go into a decade-plus long period of depression. That said, we also should not be purporting that we have reached the goal and are home free either. We probably do need to have a thorough evaluation of what is essential, what is non-essential, what jobs can make-due as work from home jobs for the next 12 months, and which ones can't. There still needs to be a strong element of fear preached to society, there needs to continue to be a level of social distancing, and we should not let people get too comfortable and think things are back to normal and a-okay just because "the curve has been flattened."
Actually, the 100-200k is still reasonable within the bell curve.
We have seemingly reached the peak death rate across this country. Some were earlier, some are later. Not sure if we'll have a 1 day peak, but if so, that was yesterday or Monday.
So, we're approximately half way through the bell curve. We still have to go down. So, we're just shy of 48k deaths in the US. So, multiply that by 2, which is 96k dead. That's what we'll probably end up with as new cases slow down, and deaths slow down. That's assuming the down side of the curve is the same as the upside, which it won't be. it will be prolonged and skewed to the right, so we may easily end up with over 100k dead.
That's how you read those bell curve charts. It's not the max.
It's not like this curve just ends with a cliff.
This was so well stated, and has a been a fear I have had for awhile now...
I think the phrasing "flattening the curve" has been used far too much throughout this entire saga by leaders and by everyday citizens, and it is to the point now where many, including the politicians/decision-makers, feel as though that was the goal, and once achieved, everything will be just fine to re-open. Some of that is due to pure ignorance, displayed by folks such as the Las Vegas Mayor, and some of that is due to China's sudden flattening and "end of pandemic" narrative that many people gobbled up as 100% fact.
Truth is, it is the exact opposite of that. I mean great, we have hit the ceiling based on our current measures, but this truly isn't the end and we should not be treating it as such and being so eager to open immediately, at least not in the manner some leaders are presenting it to the public. As long as there are still active cases out there, this thing can and will begin spreading again quickly if we do not remain cautious for some time after the curve has flattened.
We have already seen that all it takes is 1 case to turn into thousands and ultimately kill thousands within weeks, and this has been my problem with this quarantine measure all along and why it will ultimately prove moot - this thing will always break out if we aren't practicing social distancing until a vaccine comes out, but practicing social distancing to the degree we are until a vaccine comes out is also not realistic, so we are stuck in a no-win battle and are just delaying the inevitable.
To me, I uncharacteristically agree with the far right that we HAVE to open the country up at some point, probably within the next 30 days or so, in some form or fashion; the country simply cannot afford to live like this for the next 12+ months until a vaccine comes out, because if we try to, we will go into a decade-plus long period of depression. That said, we also should not be purporting that we have reached the goal and are home free either. We probably do need to have a thorough evaluation of what is essential, what is non-essential, what jobs can make-due as work from home jobs for the next 12 months, and which ones can't. There still needs to be a strong element of fear preached to society, there needs to continue to be a level of social distancing, and we should not let people get too comfortable and think things are back to normal and a-okay just because "the curve has been flattened."