COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US)

I think the plan laid out by the White House did outline guidance on when to implement each phase. Iirc, 2 weeks of sustained downward trend. I don't recall if that's based on number of deaths or number of cases though.

I think too soon would be when we have little room to respond to a spike in cases. You want to give yourself some flexibility to respond to an uptick or spike if opening back up turns bad.

I think it's tough to know what the metrics should be, but as a general rule, those are the thoughts I have.

And yes, I do think waiting a bit longer can do two things. One, ensure that the downward trend is real, and not a temporary dip, and two, further lower the number of overall cases so that if a spike in cases does happen, hospitals have a bit more capacity to work with when the spike happens.

Speaking from a perspective in Nola, the hospitals are more or less returning to normal operation this week and are more than prepared for an inevitable spike. They were prepared for way more than what they saw actually.