COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US)

Once we reopen, there will be an inevitable spike in cases. Where on the curve that spike comes is absolutely critical. Too soon and the peak of the March/April timeframe won’t be the peak of the first wave, rather it will occur in July or August and flow right into the second wave.

The NY tv station article being discussed a few days earlier, Cuomo said study shows there was about a 1% statewide increase in infected rate over expected Rate. There are about 25% of population infected in NYC according to Cuomo. This may construe the wrong message, ie that the virus isn’t as deadly as thought.

Considering the amount of positive tests and infections NY has recorded, 25% infected isn’t surprising and wouldn’t change the expected mortality rate at all. Especially since that rate is global.

Besides, trying to determine an accurate mortality rate right now is really impossible.

During the case study (pandemic) variables are defined and isolated. Lagging indicators (Mortality rate) are only worthwhile as a function of cases with outcome (ie those who got better and those who died). Otherwise, to use an analogy, you are counting the dead in the middle of a battle, and reporting the results as the morality rates for the war.

Right now, there is way too much noise in the system to make accurate predictions using lagging indicators, which is what you are doing by trying to base any outcome or prediction on using mortality rates.

We can, however, now begin to make some predictions on the mortality curves (like when and how long the rates it will take for the drop to what is the expected mortality rates worldwide, 1-3%). If those numbers are accurate It will be borne out over the summer. But when the current counts have almost 64% of total cases are still active that is too large a portion try.

Right now the global mortality rate is 7.1% of all positive cases, 3.3 million world wide, or 218,169 people dead. In four months.

The Global Mortality rate (GMr) of cases with outcome, has seemed to peak and is starting to decline. On Sunday, the GMr of cases with outcome was 19.1, or 218,169 dead out of 1,139,794 cases with outcome. The rate hit its peak last Thursday at 22.3% and has steadily declined since

It took until 4/1 to reach a million cases. We hit 2 million on 4/13. We crossed 3 million on the 25th.

ON 4/1 we had 52,991 dead. 4/13 was 129,843 dead. 5/25 there were 205,969 dead world wide.

On 5/1 we are over 3.3 million with over 232,000 dead. Globally, we are not slowing down.

I don’t do this to be alarmist. And to be sure there are potentially millions of cases potentially worldwide that have it been reported due to lack of symptoms. But that isn’t the point.

The two groups’s data (symptomatic vs non symptomatic) can and should be treated differently.

What the math shows, is if you have symptoms of Covid-19, and test positive, the chances of hospitalization and ultimately death are scary high (currently 19% global mortality rate for cases with outcome, 7% overall mortality rate). To be sure, the overall rate will be much lower once the rest of the population is factored in.

but my point is, governmentally speaking, if you don’t know for sure who will be symptomatic and who won’t, I think you have to act as if everyone would be symptomatic and operate from those parameters and open per the government’s recommendations cautiously.