COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US)

The IHME has new revised modeling out this morning. (That's the Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation (Univ. of Washington) - and they release weekly updates based on a very wide set of data).

They have revised the death toll through July up to more than 137,000. The primary driver for the upward revision is "significant increase in mobility" - this data point is gathered from cell phone pings to show how active a location is (how much people are moving around).



That’s been my expectation, with things starting to open back up now, that in about two months we’re going to see things start to spike again. Allow a couple weeks for people to start circulating and increasing contraction, a couple more after that to increase the spread, a couple more for symptoms to show up, and a couple more to see an increase in mortality figures.

August will be interesting to watch, barring further stay home orders, to see if the numbers hold or subside.