COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US)

So, the question is, how confident are you in your tradeoff scenarios? Every level of opening comes with added risk of disease spread and death, and economic damage from that, and you weigh that against the benefits of increased economic activity, quality of life etc. Do you feel confident that you know what those tradeoffs are and are comfortable with them?

For example, let's say opening up the economy with no restrictions would lead to 1.2 million dead, 12 million hospitalized with long term health issues..... for that price you get a reduction of unemployment from 14% to 10%, and an increase in GDP from -7% to -4%. I assume that's a trade-off scenario you might not be comfortable with (note, I'm not saying that's what the tradeoff is, I'm just using it for illustrative example as a way to frame the issue).

Yeah, I'm not (and never have) suggested there will not be a trade off... nor do I have a magic number of what that should be... there is a risk-trade off with every life activity...

I also NEVER said anything resembling that we should in any way "open up the economy with no restrictions".... that's every bit as a disastrous suggestion as the "lock down until there is a vaccine" mantra...

I said there needs to a balance... and that balance needs to start being employed on a case by case basis with common sense measures where they apply... before we reach a social tipping point.

Details obviously vary.... but the status quo can't remain much longer.