COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (27 Viewers)

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bclemms said:
Yep, meant to post last night that Charleston's lead grew pretty substantially yesterday with 7 day rolling average increasing about 8% in one day.

We still aren't seeing any places with doubling rates anywhere near what we saw in the spring but Charleston is certainly trying harder than everyone else.
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My buddy lives downtown and knows a lot of food and bev people - it’s been wildfire in that community. Many restaurants have had to close because half their staff are infected.

Remember when people were acting like we had a choice between fighting the virus or having thriving economy? Yeah, no - it was never a choice, and it isn’t now. Whether you close because of an order or because your staff are infected and your customers are gone - you’re still closed.
 
faceman said:
The mask isn't meant to prevent the wearer from catching it. It's meant to prevent a carrier from spreading his/her droplets when sneezing,coughing,or talking. A doctor was a guest on WWL radio yesterday.
He said if 2 people were in close contact and both were wearing a mask, the odds of transmission if one was infected to the other that wasn't was less that .001 %. This why other countries have it under control. It's mandatory in those. We refuse to listen. Muh Freedem
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Right. And I agree with Widge that a face shield is better than nothing, but I don't see how it does that effectively. If your breath is coming out as a cloud (there was a good visualization the other day of seeing your breath on a cold day) it's just going to billow around a face shield.

It aggravates me selfishly because it feels like they are putting me at risk (just as people who don't cover their noses) but it also makes me wonder why someone would risk themselves just for "comfort" or whatever (and that's rhetorical for anyone that feels compelled to answer). I also don't think it should be sufficient to be considered in compliance with the mask mandate.
 
superchuck500 said:
My buddy lives downtown and knows a lot of food and bev people - it’s been wildfire in that community. Many restaurants have had to close because half their staff are infected.

Remember when people were acting like we had a choice between fighting the virus or having thriving economy? Yeah, no - it was never a choice, and it isn’t now. Whether you close because of an order or because your staff are infected and your customers are gone - you’re still closed.
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JP Morgan found a correlation between infection and credit card activity at restaurants.

 
buzd said:
JP Morgan found a correlation between infection and credit card activity at restaurants.

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Well, that makes sense. Most people doing pick up, or delivery will be prepaying with their cards. Those swiping cards in the store will be sitting and eating on location most of the time. That, and many places here no longer accept cash for obvious reasons.
 
buzd said:
JP Morgan found a correlation between infection and credit card activity at restaurants.

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Didn't J.P. Morgan Chase also put out some big article about how reopening the economy wasn't going to cause COVID to spread again?
 
buzd said:
This is a good (and frightening) thread.



The meat of it is this:

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I think yes but possibly no. Surely the death figures are going to go up - we know the illness takes several weeks to kill (18-21 days avg). But with a demographically younger victim population and a medical community that has learned a lot in three months, I think the mortality rate will remain lower than it was during the first wave. There are ways to treat this disease that increase survival that weren’t fully known in March - May.
 
superchuck500 said:
I think yes but possibly no. Surely the death figures are going to go up - we know the illness takes several weeks to kill (18-21 days avg). But with a demographically younger victim population and a medical community that has learned a lot in three months, I think the mortality rate will remain lower than it was during the first wave. There are ways to treat this disease that increase survival that weren’t fully known in March - May.
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I agree. It was more the Simpson's paradox I was focused on actually, but the way twitter embeds responses it made it look like the deaths. It's still looking pretty grim though.
 
I think it's a combination of things.
1) Time delay- Think we'll start seeing deaths increase dramatically next week.
2) Age group- We are already starting to see this trend reverse which will cause more death
3) More protection of the most vulnerable- I think this is giving a false sense of security, the more virus there is the harder it will be to keep away from vulnerable.
4) Better treatments- Even with the combination of increased oxygen instead of ventilators and steroid treatments, this may be reducing death but even 20% seems extreme.
5) Health systems aren't as vulnerable- More hospital beds and ICU bed availability outside of the NE and West Coast preventing the overwhelming of hospital systems which leads to greatly increased mortality rate.
6) Misclassification of deaths due to politics- The death rate is very much hand in hand with the political leaning of certain areas. So while the NE may have been counting every death possible as covid, in the SE the opposite is true.

Other things kicking around in my head.
**7) Climate factors- There is evidence of cold weather weakening the immune system. Combined with other cold, flu and viruses it could go hand in hand with covid. Something as minor as the common cold or sinus infection setting off symptoms and opening the door to more serious covid cases. Cold temperatures can be an irritant to lung function. There is considerable evidence that Vitamin D could help the immune response to Coronaviruses as well as other disease and vitamin D is UV dependent.
**8) Higher viral loads in the winter due to reduced UV expsoure.
**9) Lower viral loads due to social distancing and masks.
**10) Mutation that makes the virus more contagious and less deadly.
**11) Availability of testing and faster results may be allowing us to identify infected up to a week sooner that we were able to in NYC. This means we can be treating people sooner as well as creating a larger lag between testing and death.

Most likely though, it is somewhere in the middle of everything and we are about to see a huge surge in deaths but at the same time considerably lower than what was experienced in NYC.

I really wish a solid randomized Vitamin D study would be done. Such a simple solution that we could answer a lot of questions, save a lot of lives or put to rest the idea that Vitamin D is beneficial. If the answer is in Vitamin D then we may become very complacent, let the virus run wild and then get decimated in the fall and winter.
 
Sun Wukong said:
None of it is going to matter once schools present themselves as vectors for transmission, which will be mere weeks into the year. They'll have to be shut down. We're playing pretend that there are viable options re: actually attending on campus. It isn't going to work.
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Yup.

I was just talking with a couple of colleagues yesterday about this.

We just started our summer vacation this week (we go until the end of June here) and speculating what next Fall is going to look like.

The Province has said that we might want to consider opening a week earlier, because we *will* be shut down. And soon, I think.

The school is telling us to prepare for a hybrid model of teaching, mix of online and distance learning. I think many people are operating under the assumption there will be a lot of the latter.

I think it's going to be like 80% former. And that's in a province that has had fewer than 200 cases per day for most of the last two weeks.

In states where this is about to really hit... prepare now for a lot more distance learning.

School districts, as I've written before, as absolutely *STUPID* if they are not planning with local telecoms to blanket wifi coverage.This is especially an issue in school districts with high rural populations (something I've been advocating for more infrastructure in the past, way before this). They need to get teachers ready for online teaching. They need to talk about stripping down the curriculum to essentials and competencies. They need to take standardized testing out of their stupid mouths (better if it stayed out). They need to be planning to hand out technology for kids.They need to develop an attack plan for getting food to kids on free- and reduced-lunch plans (those are still budgeted). And so on.

Any district where this *is not* happening, if I was a parent and taxpayer I would be raising ten different kinds of hell.

But I know - for a FACT - that a lot of schools and districts have done little to nothing. And when the public rises up in outrage, justifiably, they are gonna have very little to respond with.

And the petty side of me wants to say, "And you deserve it! Every bit of it!" Except we're talking about kids, people. And their education. And it's so important for so many of them.
 
buzd said:
I agree. It was more the Simpson's paradox I was focused on actually, but the way twitter embeds responses it made it look like the deaths. It's still looking pretty grim though.
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So, can you use your Math brain to help explain to those of us who are Mathematically challenged, how Simpson's Paradox applies to COVID and how it makes it look like we are treating it better and getting fewer deaths, but we really aren't? I'm sure you are right, but Statistics tends to be beyond my Math abilities.
 
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