Love Alvin, but he was very ordinary last season. Even the year before I didn't think he was quite as dynamic as he was his rookie year.
If Alvin had put up two more years like his rookie season, I'd say back up the truck and pay him. But coming off last year, you can't be sure what you are getting going forward. Is he going to be an injury-prone part-timer? Even in the best case scenario, he doesn't get as many touches in Payton's offense as other top line running backs. If you lock him in at $12 million+ a year, that contract could look very burdensome in a couple of years if he keeps getting nicked up. I say use the franchise tag next year, but if he's already holding out, that could be a deal breaker.