A strong tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea has become much better organized and it is likely that a tropical system is starting to form. Deep convection has developed into a more consolidated organization this morning near a possible low level center over the east-central Caribbean Sea.
96L is embbedded within deep easterly flow on the south side of deep layer ridge of high pressure over the southwest Atlantic which will drive the system westward toward the western Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear favorable for additional development.
Forecast models are in general agreement on a general westward motion through the next several days with a stronger more organized system turning toward the NW or N over the western Caribbean Sea and a weaker less organized system moving more westward toward central America.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District