Eta rapidly intensifies into a hurricane.
Discussion:
Eta has rapidly increased in organization and intensity over the last 24 hours with the formation of a central dense overcast in and around the center and fairly deep convective banding surrounding the center. The overall large circulation has contracted inward toward the now formed inner core. Given that Eta has now developed a defined inner core, rapid intensification is likely until landfall over eastern central America later today. Per a USAF mission that has just arrived in Eta, winds are near 90mph and the central pressure is down to around 970mb…in fact the plane reported the central pressure is falling at 3-4mb between pass 1 and 2 through the center this morning.
Track:
The track forecast through the next 48-72 hours is fairly straight forward with Eta moving west to west-southwest due to a building high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. This will force the hurricane inland over eastern central America likely in the next 24 hours. After landfall a weakening Eta will continue to the west at a slow rate of speed and into the higher terrain over inland central America. By the end of this week, a weakness will begin to develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and FL and the remains of Eta may get pulled northward into the far western Caribbean Sea. While forecast models continue to show some sort of tropical system lifting northward over the western Caribbean Sea late this week, it is unclear if this modeled forecasted system is Eta or a new tropical system that forms. Given the amount of time Eta is expected to spend over the mountains of central America, it is unclear if much will be left of the low level circulation to enter the far southwestern/western Caribbean Sea
Intensity:
As with many recent this season, Eta is in the process of quick intensification with a well defined inner core surrounded by a ring of deep thunderstorms. Both atmospheric and ocean conditions are very favorable for continued intensification until landfall, and Eta will likely become a strong category 2 or minimal category 3 hurricane prior to landfall late this evening. Once inland the hurricane will weaken and by 48-60 hours as the circulation begins to interact with the high terrain over central America, significant weakening is likely and it is unclear if Eta will ever move out of central America as a defined tropical cyclone.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District