Eta moving toward southern FL with gusty winds and squalls
Hurricane Watches issued for south FL and the FL Keys
Discussion:
Eta is very near the south-central coast of Cuba currently with both Key West and Miami radars show a large mass of squalls and showers to the north of the center across the FL Straits into SE and EC FL. While there has been a continued mass of deep convection near the center overnight the overall organization of Eta remains similar to 12-18 hours ago and the tropical storm appears to be in a steady state between shear, dry air, and soon interacting with Cuba.
Track:
The forecast track for Eta continues to have higher than usual uncertainty as the tropical system interacts with an upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico. Eta is starting to slow down and will begin to turn northward today with a sharp turn toward the west tonight into Monday. This is in response to a blocking high pressure ridge over the US east coast and the tropical system rounding the northern side of the upper level trough over the SE Gulf of Mexico. Once Eta moves into the Gulf of Mexico the steering currents begin to weaken and Eta is likely to slow down and meander over the eastern Gulf west of FL for much of this week. There are various track solutions in play for the middle and end of the week, but the increasing consensus overnight has been for a slower and more left (west) track through mid week before some sort of turn back toward the NE by late week.
Intensity:
Eta will be interacting with Cuba this morning and some weakening is expected, but the tropical storm has a broad wind field that extends well to the north and east of the center and to some degree this will likely limit the weakening over Cuba. Additionally, Eta is fighting some shear from the southwest and dry air that is periodically wrapping into the center. As Eta moves into the FL Straits later today and tonight, conditions aloft with weakening shear may allow the system to develop a more symmetric cloud pattern and help focus deep convection near the center. Should this happen, Eta would likely intensify and could become a hurricane near the FL Keys tonight into Monday. The current NHC forecast brings Eta to a 70mph TS or just shy of hurricane status and a hurricane watch is in effect for southern FL and the Keys.
Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Eta will be over the warm loop current and if dry air and shear are not overly great, Eta may intensify more, but there is some uncertainty on what the structure of Eta will be over the southeast Gulf by mid week.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District