Eta moving toward the west coast of FL and become a hurricane
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, and storm surge watches and warnings are issued for portions of the FL west coast
Discussion:
After nearly stalling over the SE Gulf of Mexico in the last 24 hours, Eta began to move toward the NNE yesterday afternoon and the center reformed NE under an area of deep convection. The Key West and Tampa radars at times have been showing and eye like feature located about 140 miles to the SW of Tampa Bay. The USAF mission currently just arriving into Eta indicates the tropical storm has once again attained hurricane status with 75mph winds. With that said, the overall cloud pattern of Eta is not as organized as earlier and it is likely that some dry air has worked into the center this morning.
Track:
After much uncertainty the last few days on the track forecast, Eta has begun to move northward at a faster rate of speed than expected. In the last 24 hours, the multi model consensus has come into much better agreement that the broad trough over the southern US will in fact pick up and recurve Eta into the western coast of FL. This has required a significant shift in the official forecast track to the east and at a much faster rate of speed. On this track Eta will likely make landfall north of the Tampa area Thursday afternoon and then turn increasingly toward the ENE on Friday.
Confidence has increased with the track forecast given the likely increasing interaction now between Eta and the trough over the southern US.
Intensity:
Eta looks decently defined on both Key West and Tampa radars with a mid level eye-like feature and numerous curved bands. It appears that some dry air and moderate southwesterly wind shear continue to influence Eta and this has held any sort of rapid deepening in check. Conditions looks somewhat favorable for some slight additional intensification this morning, but wind shear will begin to increase later today and tonight and Eta should weaken as it approaches the FL west coast. With that said, the HMON and HWRF hurricane models continue to show a stronger system approaching the FL coast on Thursday so there remains some degree of uncertainty on the intensity side of the forecast.
98L:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is likely to develop over the western Caribbean Sea late this week into this weekend. As the wave moves westward conditions will become increasingly favorable for development and a tropical cyclone is likely to form. At this time a slow westward motion is expected portions toward areas heavily impacted by Eta last week.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District