Tropical storm Eta has made its 4th landfall this morning near Cedar Key, FL.
Eta is starting to rapidly weaken due to strong upper level southwesterly wind shear over the system and interaction with the land areas of FL. Eta will continue to move NE with an increase in forward speed and likely become extratropical in the next 48 hours ending the saga of this storm which formed on 10-31.
With Eta’s departure, one would hope that the 2020 hurricane season would begin to slow some, but the Caribbean Sea has been an extremely favored development region since the first part of October and this pattern looks to continue with 98L. This tropical wave currently over the central Caribbean Sea is slowly becoming better organized and it is likely that a tropical depression will form over the next 24-48 hours. 98L is expected to move westward and gradually slow in forward motion while approaching either central America of the western Caribbean Sea. Some of the global model guidance is extremely aggressive with 98L and make it another significant western Caribbean hurricane by this weekend into early next week.
The continuation of the Atlantic basin 2020 hurricane season appears to be a function of the moderate La Nina event unfolding in the eastern and central Pacific waters which tends to highly favor tropical development in the Caribbean Sea, especially late in the season. Additionally, the upper level pattern over the US is more like early October than mid November with large scale ridging over the southeastern US and SW Atlantic Ocean which favors tropical development to the south of this feature over the Caribbean Sea and is also responsible for the continued warmth over much of the nation east of the Rockies. Lastly, water temperatures have been running above average for much of this season and this continues, especially in the Caribbean Sea where very deep and warm waters remain present which helps to fuel tropical systems.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District