New tropical depression forms in the central Caribbean Sea…the 31st of the highly active 2020 hurricane season.
Discussion:
The overall cloud pattern with 98L has become increasingly better organized over the last 24 hours and a well defined low level circulation is present in both visible satellite data and satellite wind derived data. The convective pattern is slowly organizing with increasing banding features especially to the east and north of the low level center. Based on this the system is upgraded to the 31st tropical depression.
Track:
TD 31 is situated south of a large mid level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic and this ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain in place and direct TD 31 on a westward track for the next 48 hours. After 48-60 hours there is some disagreement in the track reasoning as the hurricane models and the UKMET show a more WNW to NW motion into the far western Caribbean Sea and some potential threats to the Yucatan and Belize while the rest of the model track guidance takes TD 31 into or close to central America in the area devastated by hurricane Eta last week. Some of the downstream track forecast will likely depend on if the low level center of TD 31 reforms or relocates during its development stages over the next 24 hours.
Intensity:
It appears likely that TD 31 is poised to become a significant hurricane event in the western Caribbean Sea. Nearly all factors are satisfied for a period of rapid to extreme intensification and it is likely that once an inner core forms TD 31 with rapidly become and hurricane and then likely a major hurricane. Given the conditions are nearly the same as with Eta that saw an intense period of intensification, the likely outcome for TD 31 is similar. NHC brings the system to a 110mph hurricane in 72 hours and this may be on the low and slow side.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District