Hurricane Iota (155mph)
Iota now a most catastrophic hurricane in the southwest Caribbean Sea.
Discussion:
The intensification of Iota in the last 24 hours has been nothing short of incredible. The central pressure has fallen from 985mb to 925mb (60mb) and the winds have increased from 85mph to 155mph. USAF mission earlier this morning recorded a pressure fall of 10mb between center eye fixes in a little over a hour and flight level winds of 130kts. Iota is on the verge of becoming a category 5 hurricane…in mid November! The 16 mile diameter eye continues to clear out on satellite images and is surrounded by a ring of intense convection. In fact the flight crew reported frequent lightning and hail in the southwest eyewall. Hail is extremely rare in a hurricane eyewall due to the “warm nature” of the tropical atmosphere. Iota is a classic textbook deep tropical hurricane with near excellent outflow in all directions.
2020 has now produced two category 4 hurricanes in the month of November…for the first time ever dating back to 1851 (Eta and now Iota). Iota ties Hurricane Lenny (1999) as the strongest hurricane (155mph) this late in the season. A category 4 hurricane landfall in Nicaragua has never been recorded in the month of November until 2 weeks ago when Eta made landfall and now a second category 4 hurricane will make landfall in nearly the same exact location later today.
Track and Intensity:
Iota will continue to move generally west with high pressure to the north of the hurricane. On this track the core of a devastating hurricane will cross the coast of Nicaragua close to where Eta made landfall two weeks ago. After landfall Iota will continue to move westward into central America. Iota has near ideal conditions for continued intensification until landfall later today and it is possible that the hurricane will attain category 5 status before landfall. After landfall rapid weakening is expect as the hurricane interacts with the high mountains of central America.
Devastating impacts are likely again across areas hard hit by Eta with rainfall of 15-25 inches, storm surge of 15-18 feet and catastrophic winds near the landfall location.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District