I always dread Atlanta games...
I also looked up Atlanta's pass defense its pretty bad (ranked 32)they have allowed at least 300 yards to every team cept 2, Seattle and Carolina. Seattle in that game passed for 299 yards. Thier run defense is so-so at 4.3 yards (ranked 12) In short if defense takes care of business and Saints commit no turnovers they should win this game.
I think this is shaping up to be a really interesting game. The Falcons pass defense is BAD once the ball is released by the QB. However, there are some underlying advanced stats that reveal somethings. For instance, the Falcons are 1st in the NFL in pass rush win rate. Its a fancy stat that says Grady Jarrett mostly wins. It is also my understanding the the Saints may have some vulnerabilities in the middle of the OL?
If Brees were playing, here's where the matchup would get interesting. The Falcons love to attack the middle against low depth of target QBs who rely on high completion percentages. If you look at recent games against Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater (whichever team he's on), you'll notice the Falcons try to do whatever it takes to get middle pressure, force the quick release the QBs favor anyway, and attack receivers in the flats and on screens. It all comes down to tackling for the Falcons. If they tackle like the did in the first game last season, they win. If they tackle like they did in the second game (last year), they lose. As good as Brees was last year, he led 2 TD drives in 8 quarters of football against the Falcons in 2019.
But alas, no Drew Brees. Brees is an order of magnitude better than Winston, but he is not better at what it takes to beat the Falcons defense than Winston. Look at teams that are hanging 30 burgers on the Falcons his season. Who are their QBs? Wilson? Prescott? Herbert? AR? (Also the combo of Bears QBs on some 4th quarter ugliness). What do these QBs have in common? Much higher depth of target vs. the Falcons. The Falcons have one DB who is of NFL talent, and he's a rookie who is performing well, but still has a lot to learn (AJ Terrell). Winston has seen the Falcons as many times as Drew Brees has (almost) since the "Quinn" era started in ATL. He knows they are going to play zone and he knows if he gets protection he can win with throws into the deep seams. Unfortunately, when they do get pressure he can't stand the thought of not making a play, so he throws it up and hopes.
This is one of the few games where I think it is likely to be lower scoring than anticipated, but there are also valid paths (not far fetched) for either team to win by multiple scores. I really think it will come down to the running game. If the Saints can run (Falcons D is actually pretty stingy this season on the ground), I think Payton can get Winston into situations where he can get enough time to get some receivers deep off of play action. I assume that is going to be Cook exploring the middle seams, and T Smith/Sanders running deep patterns on the outside (just based on their route trees and ADoTs so far).
The reason Saints shouldn't be too worried about Winston's INT past is that Payton plays football differently than Arians. Payton will also alter the offense for Winston. He will not ask him to go out and complete 70%+ within a few yards of the LOS. It would be like asking a cat to bark...its just not going to happen. Payton is sharp enough to know that.
I like my Falcons chances simply because the defense has been tackling better lately. That said, the Saints are clearly the more talented team. If Winston is coachable and if Payton does alter the offense to suit his game, I think Saints by 5 is about right on target.
From my perspective, I just have to hope that Winston does the Winston thing once too often. After all, his last NFL TD pass was throw to....Deion Jones :) Hope never dies! Good luck to you guys and here's hoping all stay healthy!