Bitcoin and Crypto Talk (Merged)(includes NFT)

I think everyone else in this thread has nailed it....supply & demand forces are doing the moving. Bitcoin supply is limited, and demand is surging. While new coins can be "mined", it is a slow process and certainly can't react in concert to spikes in demand. So price HAS TO move to accommodate equilibrium. The huge swings you cite in such a short time frame (hours) can most likely be explained by a sudden spike in demand; i.e. LARGE institutional type acquisitions, or MANY simultaneous acquisitions.

I see Bitcoin as a type of stock, where you own shares of the whole and are speculating on future performance of the whole. But the BIG difference, IMO, is that stocks are generally valued based on an underlying asset, such as brick & mortar buildings, patents, sales force, predictable future cash flows, etc... Bitcoin has none of those underlying fundamentals. For that reason, it's closer to gambling, IMO. I don't have money to risk losing, so I'm not a fan....

Another thing that concerns me is that Bitcoin is probably the best known cryptocurrency, but certainly not the only one. History shows that probably only 1 or 2....at most 3....of those cryptos are going to emerge as de-facto "winners", with all the others being rendered essentially worthless.

While I would think the best known crypto, Bitcoin, will probably be one of the winners; I temper that supposition with memories of the VCR format wars in the 1980s. The 2 competing formats were Betamax, backed by tech behemoth Sony, and VHS. A late entrant in the video format wars was the VideoDisc, which looked like a very thick audio LP, which was easily breakable and couldnt record content....it was playback only....and it disappeared shortly after its debut. Dead on the vine. With respect to VHS and Beta, I can't remember all the details, but the general take was that Beta was the superior format, had the financial backing of Sony (which was flush with cash from its Sony Walkman devices), and enjoyed the support of Sony's reputation as a tech "innovator" capable of sustaining future development. It was obvious that Beta was going to be the de facto format for VCRs. Then something happened....movie studios banded together in an agreement to distribute their movie content in VHS format. Just like that....overnight....the "watch studio movies from your home" industry was born, VHS was the de facto winner, and Beta was dead in the water.

I saw this again in the early 00s with the iPOD and the MS Zune devices. By many accounts, the Zune was the better device.....bigger storage drive, better video display, stronger "parent" company. But the Zune was an afterthought for MS, while the iPOD was a main focus for Apple. Apple built the iTunes software as a bridge to its device (even making a version that worked on its competitors dominant OS), created an iTunes store for music purchases and somehow squeezed out the Napsters, Limewires, etc... in the process. My Zune became a portable HD while the iPOD evolved into the iPhone.

These are just 2 examples that really stand out in my life experience. There are literally dozens, if not hundreds, of other examples. So I'll pass on the Bitcoin until I see signs that it will be a de facto standard with universal acceptance. Of course, I'll have missed out on the HUGE upside at that point, but I'll have avoided the total loss too. With that said, that's just my life stage. If I was in my 20s or 30s, I'd probably think completely differently. Fact is, even though Beta lost to VHS, I'm sure lots of folks make a LOT of money on Beta. And I'll bet lots of folks made a lot of money on Zune before it got crushed. And some folks are gonna make a FORTUNE in Bitcoin, no matter what happens in the future. So if you're of that mindset, go for it. Just don't risk more than you can afford to "give away." Think of it as a charity....go ahead and donate what you can, with the understanding you'll never see it again. If that money ever returns to you.....BONUS!