If a new tape comes out from bin Laden in the next couple of days, which is what's being said in the debka article below, it would put all this speculation to rest.
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1325
For now, Western counter-terror agencies are on tenterhooks for a Osama bin Laden videotape promised in the next 24-48 hours, in which al Qaeda promises he will divulge its steps for salvaging “Iraq’s Muslim Caliphate,” an oblique reference to US military gains.
Bin Laden is expected to make some reference to Pakistan as well, since al Qaeda’s strategists do not see their jihad in terms of separate fronts, but as a single interlinked arena stretching across several regions.