Inflation here? gas/grocery prices just continue to climb

Coordinated strategic reserve release combined with OPEC expecting to become oil neutral and the announcement of a new variant impacting travel has pulled oil prices down about 30% in the last week.

December 2nd OPEC meets again. OPEC claims it has a two part goal to provide stability to oil producers and maintain access to affordable oil for a global markets. It's basically the second part of that equation that countries are saying they have failed to meet resulting in the coordinated release of oil reserves. OPEC vowed to retaliate which translates to reducing the supply of oil. There was a lot of pressure on OPEC to get the additional 6M barrels of day in production still being held back from prepandemic levels flowing. Now, that oil has fallen 30% in a week that pressure will not be there and it gives them the chance to come out in this next meeting and say something like, "Due to the continued pressure of the coronavirus, a new variant threatening global travel and increasing global inventories it has increased concerns that could lead to a collapse in oil prices. As a result, the plans to increase oil supplies should be slowed until markets can show better stability". Which would really translate to because you tried to overstep our power by releasing oil reserves, oil inventories increased and we are going to retaliate by reducing the amount of oil on the market and blame it on Covid and it's new variant. If that happens, expect oil to rebound to recent highs really quickly.

If they continue to increase production at current rates then expect oil to continue sliding. That meeting is really big for inflation since oil prices are such a big driver of inflation. If I'm OPEC, I want prices as high as possible while green initiatives are being drawn up globally to put pressure on governments wanting to phase out oil. I would also want to maintain as much power as possible and punish the US for strategic releases.


For the rest of the stuff driving inflation, I'm not sure it changes much in the near term but just the relief from the oil side is enough to take the edge off. If the FED comes in an starts tightening then it'll slow quite a bit more. That first rate hike will likely change the mindset of a lot of people and start to cool inflation. I'm not sure much will change in the sectors where inflation is being driven by supply shortages. Things like semi-conductors and building supplies.