Are you willing to get the Covid vaccine when offered?
Preface: I'm posting this for Ward to look at as a continuation of the discussion from the Covid statistics thread.... so go read that before jumping my bones.
https://www.insidescience.org/news/link-between-imperfect-vaccines-and-disease
https://epubs.siam.org/doi/abs/10.1137/140956695
I do find it interesting that all imperfect vaccine types require the same critical ratio to eliminate a disease. This is just data modeling and predicting, so it's not to prove anything.
https://epubs.siam.org/page/EpidemiologyCollection
ooooo learnins time.
edit: why does it say Error.. cookies etc.?
Yes, I agree, it's a mathematical model, so it's hard to compare a predictive model to actual data and looking at objectively.
And, I believe the point of that model, which makes sense, is that a leaky vaccine would be the one that would lead to the most spread, if under the critical percentage (which is variable, and they don't say what are some percentages could be). Of course, because from day 1 of that theoretical vaccination program, you'd get some leaked through infections, whereas the fully sterilizing has none in the vaccinated population, and the waning has none for a while. So, assuming the same vaccination rate, any vaccine that allows some 'leakage' is going to end up with more infections. You're just adding more folks to the pile of unvaccinated ones. Again, in this theoretical model that isn't based on anything to do with Covid.
Their take away was that based on what kind of vaccine it is, it would change the roll out and policy. I think in the case of a leaky vaccine, they don't say this, but I'd assume you'd want to roll out as fast as possible, but still keep some mitigation measures. Which is what we've been doing.
the first link to the study is just the abstract, so the article was more helpful. And I cried a little when I read 'differential equations'.. uh... not the most fun class. But, since I can't see the theoretical models, I can't say much about them, other than what I did. However, it doesn't really apply to our talk about real world numbers. Other than it begs the question if the mRNA vaccines act more like a leaky vaccine or a waning immunity vaccine.. or, does it depend on the person? like, a mix of both.
The second link is a link to a bunch of articles. So, I'm not going through all that. But maybe some other time I'll poke around there.