49ers had lowest min. win probability to win a game of all-time per NextGen

The most improbable part was the 88yd TD drive with no timeouts.

All the others are kind of unremarkable.

When the Rams got the ball with 1:57, the Niners had all three TOs.

The Rams weren’t going to pass due to wanting the Niners to burn their timeouts and they weren’t running worth a darn that game. So the 3 and out seemed almost inevitable.

Hell, the reason the Niners punted was because they felt they had a good chance of getting it back.


Also when the Niners did score there was only about 30 seconds or so left, so preventing the Rams from scoring in the final drive of regulation wasn’t all that remarkable. The Rams, again weren’t going to take a huge risk.

Also in OT the Niners won the toss and had an 8 minute drive for a FG before the Rams ever touched the ball.

So it really makes me question the stats that determine those “chance of winning” percentages. That game stunk for us, but it wasn’t some epic collapse or epic comeback. It was a 7 point game for most of the second half.

I’d have found it to be more “appropriate” to this season had they tied and we missed the playoffs as a result. 😆
I was following the “chance of winning” during that game more than I have for any other game. It fluctuated wildly. Once OT started and FOX picked up the bonus coverage, I switched from ESPN’s Gamecast to TV, but I’d imagine that the chance of winning went up drastically after LA’s first down play, and continued to do so.