COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.]

Arathrael said
I'm talking about the same, and I'm working on the assumption that they may be similar enough for the same reasoning to continue to apply. When we're talking about a variant of the same virus, it would seem unwise to simply assume the opposite. The presumption should, generally, be that the potential for the risk is similar; if we wait for further data, particularly for data on conditions that can take a while to develop, very substantial numbers of people will have already been exposed to the potential risk at that point.

In terms of the vaccine's effectiveness against infection, I said it reduces the risk, not prevents. And it can still substantially do that; UK vaccine surveillance (pdf) indicates that with Omicron, 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna has 65-70% effectiveness waning to 10% by 20 weeks after the second dose, and after a booster dose, from 65-75% effectiveness dropping to 55 to 65% by 5-9 weeks and to 45-50% from 10+ weeks.

Bearing in mind that the risk of severe effects from illness is a combination of the risk of infection and the risk of severe effects if infected, even that reduced level of effectiveness against infection is significant.

I'd add that the data also indicates that the vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation is also substantially higher after second doses and boosters ("When combined with vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease this was equivalent to vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation of 58% after 1 dose, 64% 2-24 weeks after dose 2, 44% 25+ weeks after dose 2, and 92% dropping to 83% 10+ weeks after a booster dose", from the previously linked report). That's in terms of the general population, so the impact of that will vary with base levels of risk, but the relative difference is likely to still be present across the age demographics.

I do find it generally odd to consider the risk of death or severe illness in children from Covid to be 'close to non-existent', while regarding the lower risk of typically mild myocarditis from vaccination to be more significant. From my point of view, vaccination in children represents an overall reduction in risk, and while that is, relatively a low to very low risk to start off with, depending on whether you're considering risk of long-term effects such as long Covid, risk of hospitalisation, or mortality, especially in the case of the latter it's a very low risk of potentially very high consequence. So I would still see it worthwhile to further lower that risk through vaccination, and overall, taking everything into account (risk of severe illness, mortality, and long Covid) speaking of children generally, I can't personally see how the balance swings any way other than towards vaccination.

It's certainly true to say it's less significant a difference in children than it is in the older population, where the reduction in risk is a reduction of a much more substantial risk, but it's still a reduction in risk nevertheless.

But having said all that, in that specific instance rather than generally, I definitely wouldn't vaccinate him 3 days after infection; I think generally the advice is to wait 12 weeks after recovery in the first place. And family history of particular conditions takes the consideration out of the general case, which could swing either way, depending on whether it's considered to present an increased risk from Covid more so than from vaccination, or vice versa.

Again, all of these statistics and data are working off the assumption that Omicron and Delta are the same. So far, we've seen dozens of studies come out from many different countries, while none perfect, they are pointing towards the same thing and that is a significant reduction in severe disease with Omicron. We've watched the peaks come and go in numerous countries and starting now to see it in some states. In each country we started seeing the same thing, a huge spike in hospitalizations but in each country the data was corrupt due to incidental covid cases indicating far greater communtiy spread than testing is indicating and less severe cases pushing from both ends of the spectrum. All around the world we are seeing less severe cases, less time in the hospital, less pneumonia, faster incubation, faster recovery, milder symptoms and a completely different set of symptoms. We all freaked out when the news first broke because it mutated far more than anyone expected possible with a single mutation. The mutations in the spike protein were expected to impact vaccine efficiency. It shouldn't be a suprise when Omicron evaded immune response so well. Anecdotal evidence is widely available in this thread. So many here avoided covid for so long. So many are double vaxxed and boosted. We're all sick. This anecdotal evidence extends globally and is now pushing beyond the point of anecdotal into many studies showing the same thing, rapidly decreasing prevention of transmission. At what point do we change our mindset?

Let's look beyond that.
Rhode Island hit the highest cases per capita recorded at any state and any time in the pandemic earlier this week at 657 cases per 100k. Rhode Island is the 2nd most vaccinated state in the country at 77% fully vaccinated and over 90% with at least one dose. Ny 381, Mass hit 358. That's the top three 7 day moving averages recorded in any state since the start of the pandemic. All three are in the top 5 of percent fully vaccinated.

Portugal is the most impressive. They are the most vaccinated country in the world with 93% vaccinated and they are on a 7 day moving average of over 350 per 100k. Australia is quickly becoming a spectacle. I'm not sure how else to put it. The chart looks more like an altitude graph for a space launch. It's just from 0 to vertical extending through every column. They are one of the more vaccinated and restricted countries in the world and even trying some drachonian measures. The same trends with Delta in regards to areas in the deep freeze of winter catching a break during the other variants, not with Omicron. Islands being able to hold off infection like past variants? Nope. Low latitude countries, got them too.

I'm not sitting over here cherry picking data. Everywhere in Europe and the US is looking really similar despite vaccine status or mandates. The mandates that may have worked in the past, Omicron just runs right through because it's too contagious to stop. That UK vaccine surveillance is showing 70% effectiveness that wanes quickly but all the data on Omicron is incomplete and doesn't rule out any sort of causation.

When delta was circulating the correlation between vaccination rates and states with high covid counts were very obvious. None of us were surprised when states like Ms, Al, Ga, Fl, Tx, Tn, Ar, Mo and Ky were throwing up huge numbers while states like Vermont, NY, RI, Ma, Cn, DC and other states with high vaccination rates were looking down the map at stupid arse states in the South, rightfully so. Omicron completely obliterated that. Why is it ok for us to point at that and showcase how wonderful the vaccines worked but now that the shoe is on the other foot we ignore the data and continue to point back to the good ole days when vaccines prevented infection at a realtively high rate?

We both agree on the effectiveness against severe illness and death. This is not even debateable and quite frankly, any adult that isn't vaccinated at this point is highly unlikely to get vaccinated and my thoughts on that crowd are really well documented.

I do consider the severe illness risk of children under the age of 15 to be extremely low risk. I also find the side effects of the vaccine to be extremely low risk. I do see in studies where greater than 90% of myocarditis cases present after the 2nd shot of the vaccine. So my choice was to get my son the first shot, reduce the already really low risk of a severe outcome by another 60% while reducing the already low risk of myocarditis by an additional 900%. I'm not advocating against parents deciding to get the vaccines for their children. I had plans to get both of my kids double vaxxed then the booster when the time was right but Omicron put those plans on hold. They both got their first shots in late November. Perhaps if they got their second shots it would have prevented them getting infected but it didn't stop it from getting me, my wife, her step father (round 3 for him with two vaccines and a booster). Didn't stop it from getting my mom and quite frankly damn near everyone I know regardless of vaccine status or previous infection. I do think the pressure and guidance being placed on children should take a longer look. I got really upset at the shifting of the goal posts when one side was calling covid a hoax, the flu, denying masks, anitvaxxing, etc. Now I'm seeing that same shifting of the goal post on vaccines with kids. The newest data coming out suggests that myocarditis was undercounted in initial studies by a pretty big margin. The newest data coming out says that Omicron is really efficient at breaking through vaccines. The new data coming out shows that Omicron is far less severe by nearly a magnitude of 10. Doesn't mean it isn't going to take a toll, it certainly has and will due to the overwhelming numbers.

Next, look how quickly efficacy falls off on the vaccine. Why are we trying to get booster shots in arms on the backside of the peak in the lowest risk subsectors? Using model guidance, there is a really high degree of certainty that in a couple of weeks we are going to be watching case numbers running down towards low background numbers and 20 weeks out we are going to be hitting some of the lowest numbers we've hit in 18 months. This period is when current 2nd and booster shots will be hitting max efficacy. Then when the next wave cranks up that effectiveness will have already waned. We are getting gas on a full tank. It's a shot we could be putting in the arm of someone that has the need for it another country which helps reduce the risk of death and reduce the risk of the next variant. Next, an Omicron vaccine will be out as early as March as well as a lot more data to guide us in the right direction so I just don't see how it wouldn't be prudent to hit the pause button.

For my son specifically, it's a very obvious position to sit back and wait. I'll wait until I start seeing signs of a new wave before reacting at all. For my daughter, I'm much more likely to get a second shot but have no need for it at the moment given the recent case and a coming rapid fall back to background levels. Perhaps I'm overreacting since Myocarditis led to my brother having a heart transplant in his 30's which led to some pretty extreme daily pain and immunity issues which ultimately ended in suicide. I'm also quite aware of the myocarditis risk from the virus as my niece is just now getting back to normal from severe myocarditis after covid in the spring of 2020.