The Investment Thread

Saint_Ward said
It's kind of crazy. If World O Meters is correct, we have about 25 million active cases.... just adding up the cases since Dec 21, so the last 30 days, we have had about 17 million covid 19 cases. and about 7-8 Million are in the last 10 days. That's a lot of people not working, not traveling, spouses maybe too.. or other family members. Lots of people temporarily on the economic sideline.

I agree but it is really easy to see where this is headed. The fall will be as fast as the spike and the major economies (less China) will have this large immunity period with low cases. Plus we are watching a rapid evolutionary jump towards an endemic stage where Covid is becoming the common cold and quite frankly I don’t think Omicron is nearly as far away from the common cold as most think.

3-5 weeks and Omicron is burned out and the whole country is sitting at peak immunity. When that happens you can bet your arse Netflix and chill isn’t going to be on the menu.

Im much more concerned with the Fed rates, inflation and volatility creating a hostile environment at a time the retail trade can’t afford to buy any more dips.

I’m much more concerned about inflation outstripping wage growth. I’m much more concerned about overvalued stocks finally being deflated by a shift in monetary policy.

I’m much more concerned with geopolitical tensions and the rising price of oil.

I’m much more concerned with job data underperforming and economic growth slowing at a time where the only solution the market has built is an explosion.

I’m much more concerned with a heavy rotation out of tech creating a cascade effect that ends in panic.

The travel play is a really good one but it could still lose money because of overall market headwinds.