The Investment Thread

Saintaholic said
The market giveth, the market taketh away.

Made a sweet 1,200% return on my $4 and $5 calls on OCGN, and took out a good 75% of the total value yesterday, leaving a large amount left in there to roll into today, however OCGN announced an offering at EOD yesterday, which seems to be tanking the share price.

Can't complain after making a large chunk of change, but MAN, I have about 500 $5 calls still left hanging out there that will go from about $8.5k in value to damn near worthless. I was counting on a nice T+2 settlement run to the upside today and tomorrow, along with FOMO, but that seems very unlikely at this point.

It sucks, because no matter how great your DD is or how much work and preparation you put into calculating a play and how much you want to risk, there is literally no defense to a surprise offering announcement out of nowhere. You "sign" an options contract having no idea if the actual value of the security will change on the supply side or not, and that's frustrating; I think this is a first for me. Almost feels like theft, because you know the Market Makers had to have known.

Oh well, can't complain much since I ended it in the green and I knew I was playing a high stakes game versus them by owning so many calls; you live, you learn. We do still have earnings coming on Friday, so I may still get a miracle run at the end of the week. We shall see.

Im playing the same game right now with airliners. I’m 100% sure flight prices are going to skyrocket due to insane demand over the next 6-12 months. Airlines are about to make a killing. Even if international flights to Asia doesn’t come back it won’t matter. The profit per mile per seat is about to go through the roof.

Despite that, the overall market being expensive, fed tightening, inflation and geopolitical tensions can derail the play at a moments notice. Airlines could make a fortune and their stocks still have plenty of room to run down.

I thought my Embraer play was ideal yesterday. Sitting on support levels, their newer planes are a big hit. Orders coming in as fast as they can make planes. The company’s defense contracts are booming so the idea of increased war pressures should be a boost. Drops 8% because the countries at war produced the worlds largest supply of aluminum and the stock sells off because aluminum jumps 10%.

It did allow me to double down twice to bring my average cost way down which means I’m going to make a fortune at the bell with since it is up 4% and I loaded up on short term call options. I’ll basically be in the green and still have my initial play in riding on house money.