Inflation here? gas/grocery prices just continue to climb

at what point does the balloon pop and everything comes crashing down?
First clue is when SUV and trucks suddenly start losing value on the used car market. You will start seeing 0% 72 months financing and SUVs start suddenly being offered below MSRP. That's usually the first sign it's having a big enough impact to change people's behavior. When it's changing behavior then it's eating into expendable income.