Potential Severe Weather tomorrow, 3-22-22 (Update: Tornadoes on ground in metro area)

To give everyone an idea on timing and what the storm will look like, here is the high resolution rapid refresh model run that goes out 48 hours. As you can see it's a really well formed squall line. This is one of the models but one that tends to handle these solutions quite well. There will likely be a ton of tornado warnings tomorrow but the biggest threat is straight line winds. What you want to really worry about for tornadoes are isolated storms that form out in front of the line.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022033000&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_se&p=refcmp&m=hrrr
Tomorrow is going to be very windy. In fact, most guidance is suggesting the windiest conditions most will see tomorrow is not even in the storms but in the hour or two before the squall line moves through. The thunderstorms will come and go in about an hour. Here are the wind gusts on the model.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/mode...2022033000&fh=loop&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
The significant tornado index, which basically includes the amount of instability and wind shear as well as some other factors. For reference, the tornado in Arabi last week was near 6 just before the tornado hit. Take this index with a grain of salt because it's really designed for supercells which are far, far, more likely to spawn violent tornadoes and the models aren't really showing supercells.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/mode...2022033000&fh=loop&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
Almost all guidance is mixing down warm, dry air aloft during the day wiping out a lot of the moisture needed for severe weather. When mixing occurs it also reduces the wind shear. This is very rare this far South so there is the chance that the environment could be more primed than being indicated.



My best guess, we will see a massive outbreak of tornado warnings since every forecaster is going to be on high alert. We might actually see quite a few tornado reports as well but most of these are only threats to trailers. Anytime we are in peak season and get this much shear working through the area then it just takes one storm to do something bad and that chance is certainly there. I really don't see the potential for an outbreak of long track violent tornadoes tomorrow and almost everyone here will experience about 15 minutes of strong thunderstorm then some light rain and it will be over.

I wont be here to update any changes tomorrow so please don't rely on me and listen to your local mets and forecasters. Take warnings seriously but I also wouldn't stress over this.

Also, before anyone asks. I will be out I really don't know where I'm planning on being, none of it looks particularly good for chasing. If I had to guess right now somewhere along the I-55 corridor near the Ms/La line, mostly because it's close to home.

The system next week is the one that has my attention.