Where there's smoke there's fire.

I'm not sure teams really care about the 5th year for QBs these days. I know that used to be the conventional way to do it, but it seems like guys are either getting new big deals before their 5th year because they are really good, or teams are ready to move on to try another QB before the 5th year.
I don't think that's the case. A 1st round QB on in his 5th year (could be) WAY cheaper than an elite starting QB on his 2nd deal. Will be at least a little bit cheaper, even if they make 2 pro-bowls. Yes, teams will extend that QB during the 5th year, but that 5th year contract still counts if I'm not mistaken.

So say you draft a QB at #16. His 4 year contract is ~15M His 5th year could be 20M (I don't really know)...

So you extend him before or during his 5th year for (5 years at 40M/yr)

If I'm not mistaken, that makes his contract be 6 years at 220M total (or 36M/yr)

I think it worked that way with MT and AK and Ram.