Predicting who will be a franchise QB isn't the hard part. It's being in position to draft one. There's a reason Burrow went #1 over all and a reason why none of these QBs are ranked in the top 10 players. As we get closer to the draft desperate teams will take an unfounded risk and reach for a QB thinking "hopefully it turns out okay" versus "this is what the film says".
Hitting on a QB isn't as hard as the lottery, but people like to pretend it's random, like someone finds a Tom Brady every year. When in fact the MOST LIKELY outcome is dropping a first round pick on someone that shouldn't have been picked in the first. That's not hard to see if you take off the wishful thinking goggles.
When a franchise QB enters the draft, go all in to get him, but wasting a 1st hoping that a guy that looks like a project turns into a franchise QB is nuts. All these QBs other than Pickett have giant flaws, and while Pickett is arguably a first round guy, he still has questions marks.
I'm just not a fan of doing something when there's a lot of evidence it won't turn out well.