Why the low draft grades?

I debated whether to start a new thread with this theme, but at the end decided to contribute again to this thread. What is missing in both the Saints' fundamental approach to the draft--in my opinion--and the immediate post-draft grades of those in the media is humility.

I repeat what I have said often: Drafting is really hard. It's like being a really good golfer at a major. On a rare occasion, you win. Often you play well and shoot under par. At times, you don't play especially well and shoot over par. And every so often, you don't even make the cut.

At times, trading up to select a targeted player is the smart play. But it depends on some many variables--what is the likelihood of your drafting the player if you don't move up, what is the price of moving up, what are your other options if you don't draft that player. But the argument against constantly trading up is that there is always a substantial chance that a targeted player, even one picked high, will not meet expectations. Historically, there is a real possibility that Olave or Penning will not start in 2022, will not contribute significantly in 2022, and even will never prove to be a quality starting player, even if the injury is the reason, though in all probability a player picked at 11 or 19 should be successful. And again, every NFL team has the statistical data showing the likelihood of several levels of success at every draft position for every position. I actually have such data going back 30 years ago.

Underlying a habitual practice of constantly trading up in the draft is the team's belief that the team can beat the odds and can draft better than most other teams, much like those in the financial field who think they can often time the market. Our 2016 draft was good. Our 2017 draft was generational. Our last four drafts--if we consider overall production regardless of the number of picks--ranged from poor to slightly above-average, though a reason in some years was having fewer draft picks because we had traded them away.

And the media's post-draft grades, especially those expressed in a nearly dogmatic tone as PFF nearly always does, also reflect a lack of humility. I don't mind the evaluations--I read them, and find some interesting and even informative. But the certitude in some is at best irritating.