Ukraine
Well to be fair if the conflict goes nuclear I dont want to be stuck on this planet with my family not knowing what to do.
I have had a recurring dream at least half a dozen times since Feburary where we know there are incoming and I am holding my kids crying and telling them I am sorry and they diserved more out of life.
I mean we are in the middle of Seattle, if the alert came through the only quick routes out of the city would be instant gridlock... the arterial roads here cannot handle much of a load as it is.
Stealing or hopping on someone elses boat and heading for somewhere like vancouver island has occured to me, but if I had the idea, a million others have had it too. Besides there are Naval and Air Force bases in the Puget Sound, so the whole area is probably forked.
Additionally Seattle's geograpic location probably affords it the least warning time of any target in the lower 48 I would think.
Anyway, back to work, I can solve my current conundrum with code, I cant do shirt about the potential willingness of Putin to end human civilization.
There was a time when Seattle was in the least warning zone. That was when the Soviet's still maintained eastern Siberian missile and bomber bases.
At this time the furthest east that they have a rocket base is near Irkutsk. That is technically in Siberia but it's pretty far west of Seattle, being located north of Mongolia.
The rockets located there are mobile RS-24's. I would think they are aimed at China, Pakistan, and India, and North Korea, but not Seattle because the RS-24 would be at about it's extreme furthest range to reach Seattle.
They are the most modern land based missiles Russia has, they are post Soviet, having been made in the 2004 to 2006 year range. But even they are approaching 20 years old, and they are solid propellant. I would think their effective range has diminished a bit over the years.
Anyway they have 27 missiles like that near Irkutsk, and each can carry 4 warheads, but not all of them will have 4 warheads.
All of their other rocket bases are further west from there. In most cases significantly west of there. While the further west bases that have the very old SS-18 missiles might be in range for Seattle, they are liquid fueled, and I would think about half of them would likely explode in their silos if they attempted to fuel them. I would also think their warheads are well beyond their shelf life, they would probably fizzle instead of explode.
Insofar as missile submarines their Pacific fleet only has two. One is very old and is carrying sea launched liquid fueled SS-18's, and if even one of them were to exploded during fueling it would sink the whole submarine. That old submarine is at it's end of life and it might already have been decommissioned.
So that leaves one project 955 modern sub in the Pacific fleet that carries 14 missiles, where each missile might have as many as 10 warheads. Like the RS-24 land based missiles they were built by Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed.
I would regard that one lone submarine as the only likely threat to Seattle at this time. I don't think a single aircraft dropped warhead, or launched cruse missile would even make it to America.
The sub base near Seattle is certainly likely to be a target. It's about 25 miles at most from the Seattle city center so even if Seattle were not a target, if they hit that sub base nearby Seattle's city center would be in the mild to barely damaging blast radius. The expected damage from a RS-24 air burst 150 kiloton warhead would only do very modest damage to buildings in the city center. Break windows, and a few flimsy buildings might be structurally damaged.
You would probably survive. There would be a big sound and the earth would shake, and then there would be a strong gust of warm wind 25 seconds later. That might break your windows. Might cause a tree to fall on your house. Tear up a carport.
But most likely that warhead, or warheads hitting the sub base, would be ground bursts and that would further minimize the effect.
Those RS-24 missiles are intended for counter force use. They are not city killers, They are missiles carrying many small warheads targeted at our missile silos. They will be ground burst, and their radius of extreme damage will be only be about a mile.
There are placed in Montana, the Dakotas, Colorado, that would be much worse places to be.
So I think your chances for survival in Seattle are pretty good.
You might adsorb some fallout, but I have survived a lot more fallout than you are likely to be dusted with. I and almost all members of my extended family who got dusted survived.
:)