The Investment Thread
I agree but where else can you find the buy/sell orders for a stock for a given day? I'm a small 1x GME holder and 2xx AMC holder and I have other stocks but that's the majority of my portfolio. All in all I don't have but 5000 in stock. I look to this site more than Reddit for insight into market but I'm a newbie and am curious as to what you think is going to happen and should I continue to buy now or just hold and wait or sell? I know you can't give FA, and am not asking for it, just was wondering where else I can get info and data about the market that is reliable. I trust half to none of what I see on Reddit but none of what I read on MSM
I've put my thoughts out there before and I'll give you my honest thoughts but they are going to sound like I have this superiority complex and I'm part of the conspiracy even though I am rooting for everyone I'm about to talk about. I think documentaries and blockbuster movies are going to be made about the absolutely amazing short squeeze a bunch of mostly young traders were able to pull off against major hedge funds. Those that were in before the squeeze made a massive fortune. They hit a historical level home run and made one of the most unlikely plays in the history of the financial world. They won.
That documentary is also going to be full of hedge managers talking about how they infiltrated reddit and helped get momentum going behind a bunch of other stocks that were heavily shorted for a squeeze play in order to prevent the focus on just one or two stocks from driving up even farther. Then they will talk about all the pump and dumping they did on that forum milking people dry. The saddest part of the whole documentary will be talking about apes and diamond hands. It'll discuss how they were duped using many of the same tactics and misinformation that other conspiracy groups used. Finding bad guys to blame, blaming the "MSM", claiming to be the sole keepers of the truth and pretty much everything else that happened in 2020 and continues today. Not all of them will be bad guys, many ultimately just bought the illusion. There is always going to be some truth to dirty tactics in the markets because it's a dirty market. Comedy will come in when guys like Dave Portnoy and other influencers became the go to for stock tips and stock plays using rocket and moon emojis while they were making fun of people like Warren Buffet. The documentary will talk about how social media and bots were used as psychological weapons to convince people not to sell stock of companies that were massively in debt with increasing negative revenue but to continue buying them on the way back down in this to the moon fantasy. This will go hand in hand with the crypto bust even though crypto will recover after most of the sheet coins are wiped out and real world uses continue to evolve.
It'll talk about the perfect storm of free money from covid, people being stuck at home becoming day traders, an entire political party built off of conspiracy theories and alternative media groups selling an alternative reality. This sets up the perfect storm for the short squeeze to take place but also sets up the perfect environment for massive funds to use the exact same tactics to take all that covid money from the young, old and poor. The mantra of buy the dip makes a lot of people a lot of money until the bubble pops then there are so many dips the markets only drop 10% before nobody has money left to buy the dip and it becomes a replay of 1929 when everyone is all in on the market and there is nowhere else to go but straight down. Like every other bust in history, it's going to look super obvious in hindsight but impossible for most to see in real time when the money and excitement is flying around.
Actually, I would make this documentary if I had the connections to find the people I would need.
With all that said. AMC price has come down so much that the stock price is only about 300% higher than average in the entertainment industry. So more than likely it's going to keep having these pump and dump fake runs and eventually be forgotten about and settle back down to around $5/share. It'll eventually look like a company that is struggling to maintain it's place in modern society with massive amounts of debt and revenue that can't keep up while those debt prices soar with inflation. At least GME doesn't hold debt but at the end of the day it'll look like a brick and mortar retail location similar to blockbuster. The cloud based gaming platform they are trying to build is their only hope and even if they are able to compete with the likes of Sony, Amazon, Google, Apple and Microsoft (unlikely) then the mega companies will just hire some lobbyists, break some antitrust laws and put GME out of business by either charging them to access games and pricing them out of the market or something similar to the way itunes and Google Play have stuck it to everyone else on the planet. Eventually they'll lose a class action suit for a few hundreds million that is almost completely captured by attorneys but it'll be pennies on the dollar compared to what they made eliminating the competition.
The tech stocks is just a repeat of the dot com bust. Filled with a bunch of people screaming it's different this time and being sold this illusion of the future that will suddenly justify the stock prices of single companies that are greater than the entire market in which they are attempting to capture. People getting sucked into great companies but at prices that are simply not realistic. A handful of companies will come out the other side and make it. Players like Amazon, TSLA and Apple. The other 99% will crash and maybe in a decade the stocks will recover the all time highs but most will go bust. The smart money jumped in, played the momentum up and bailed. The rest will just be bag holders chasing FOMO, YOLO or MOMO.
The environment in November reminded me of the stripper scene in the Big Short. It's that obvious and has been for quite some time but it's hard to bet against a huge bubble that seemingly never stops running. The FED's hand being forced against inflation is going to be the ultimate needle. I even said that at least a dozen times on this very thread. Stuff like, "Easiest play ever is going to be shorting crypto as soon as the Feds mention tightening" yet even I got suckered out of the easiest play in history after watching the squeezes and bubble going insane.
I sure hope I'm wrong. That's my opinion though.