Ukraine

Belarus is stationing more and more troops on UKR border including special forces. They and Russia claim that Poland is going to attack them. Sound familiar?

I know they don’t want to initiate anything because they would get it handed to them. But, they are staging for something.
My guess is that Lukashenko desperately does not want to get dragged into this, but he's got to do things for show to make Putin happy.

Putin's stretched pretty thin right now. If he makes Lukashenko send Belarussian troops into Ukraine, there would be a substantial chance of a civilian (not to say military as well) uprising and Putin is not in nearly the same position of strength to help prop up Lukashenko as he was last time.