Inflation here? gas/grocery prices just continue to climb
I think inflation may be about to crash along with the global economy.
Basically what I'm starting to piece together is the mega corporations were ordering way more than what they were needing with the expectation of shortages more severe than what we saw which created many of the shortages. Just look at Wal-Mart's quarterly report yesterday. Missed on retail sales in store, missed on the online sales and inventory levels were 1000% higher than normal with so much crap they wont be able to sell it all. It was a great business strategy to buy surplus inventory when supply lines were tight to make sure your business keeps running while keeping the little guys from being able to get inventory. You can go ahead and bet that all the big companies were doing the same. This was not only putting way more pressure on the supply chains but it was putting inflationary pressures on goods because companies were fighting over a limited supply. Ironically, it could be what tanks the economy. Now that the big companies are going to have excess inventory they will have to try an dump it with fire sales. Meanwhile, they are going to hit a pause button on ordering which is going to create a sudden shift to supply chain excess. This will likely be lagging with computer chips but I think those are even about to catch up with interest rates rising enough to start deterring new car sales and crypto crashing which tends to crash out the chip market since the latest high end chips and graphics cards losing demand.
Freight prices are suddenly cratering because they geared up for this huge global demand while meeting global pressures to increase capacity. Now all the sudden the ordering is going to stop and freight prices have only one way to go. We could even swing hard to deflationary pressures really fast here. If we do, then there is going to be a window for the consumer to pull the economy out of a death spiral but it's going to be a big ask without a FED backstop.